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October 3, 2018. Today on RBDR:
Polling for every election faces down the same essential problem: turnout. What are the polling variables that are unique to this year’s polling work and will ultimately establish actual turnout?
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Bob, every election has problems with predicting turnout, and what groups will be energized and which will not, and what immediate events might cause some to anger and others to applaud. I think the biggest problem is that there are not many good samples anymore. The question of sampling with respondents on land lines, online, and cell phones makes it very complicated to get a balanced sample. I am not the first to feel this way, Pollster Lou Harris a few years ago before his death said, “Survey Research was Dead” because there were no longer any good samples. When I first heard this, I felt it was an over-statement, but now I am not so sure. Also, so many political polls which I have taken recently Have Such Biased Questions that it is possible to know which candidate or group they support and want to win.