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December 1, 2021

Today on RBDR: Most market research professionals sheepishly concede that every pre-election poll that misses the mark creates credibility issues for the market research industry as a whole. What are the reasons for this trend? There is no single answer, but a “The New Yorker” conversation with the pollster for recently re-elected New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy shed new light on the problem.

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One thought on “Why Polling Can Be Wrong. A Novel Reason / RBDR

  1. You are right there is no single reason why political polls are sometimes wrong. Here is another thought many candidates that carry a lot of negatives like Phil Murphy and Donald Trump are so unpopular that people don’t even want to answer pollster’s questions about them. Therefore, the depth of the negatives or the closeness of a race is hard to measure. You literally don’t know how many people who hate the candidate will turn out to vote, and how the velocity and intensity of that hatred will resonate with other voters. (Negative voters are sometimes merely the tip of the iceberg).

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