December 13, 2017. Today on RBDR:
Host Bob Lederer continues his observations about things for research to be most thankful for. Today: the sorry state of polling.
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So Bob, recall our first meeting in Tempe in 2002. In my talk at CASRO I likened the low response universe to the lunatic fringe. There is simply no basis for presuming that the responding 20% or 10% or 5% or 1% (as was the case that I illustrated) speaks for the silent 80%, 90%, 95%, or 99%. No set of parameters nor any sophisticated model can adequately compensate for crappy input. Mistakes are easier to identify in the polling world because their accuracy is linked to an election; the same errors occur in the market research world but the lack of a timely and valid verification source spares us from equal embarrassment.