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November 12, 2020
Today on RBDR: Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly has some “different” philosophies and polling beliefs, yet his presidential election polling record shows several surprising winning calls along with any pollster’s expected projection misses. A look at some of the most prominent differences.
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Bob, a good and fair appraisal of Trafalgar. If you are going to do political polling you need to try different techniques in order to be accurate. Bottom line, I wish major polling firms would not get involved in election politics because many races are within the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Polls cannot be more accurate than that unless different techniques are tried. For example, Trafalgar’s idea of asking how a neighbor might vote was excellent, finding out how your brother’s or sister’s may vote is another. Elections have so many variables from turnouts to weather, as well as the impact of provisional and mail ballots now that it is getting almost impossible to be that accurate. Most importantly, use of cell phones, i-pads, laptops,
etc. is beginning without serious weighting to make it impossible to get a projectable sample, which personally is the major reason I chose to retire. Finally, Trafalgar is no different than Louis Harris who always refused to appear at AAPOR because he didn’t “want to make his competitors smarter”.