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January 22, 2018. Today on RBDR:
Polling was “fixed,” internationally, in 2017. So says a Kantar Lightspeed study. Or was it? Two U.S. polling experts question that. And a political poll from three very reputable U.S. companies has me wondering.
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I think reputable polling companies are trying very hard for an accurate read, but they get swamped in their predictions of likely voters and assumptions about social currents when they are in rapid flux. In other words, the black box of weighting results to be representative is the biggest area for fault, and the one where the least amount of corrective action has been taken. This leaves aside the polls that seem to be purposefully biased toward democratic or republican voters.